房產學人——用空置率判斷泡沫的危險
2012-05-29...首先，上次泡沫爆破正是在空置率最低時發生：1996和1997年的樓宇空置率是整個90年代中（1991-2000）最低的兩年，分別是3.7%和3.8%，比現時4.3%還要低，按以上邏輯，理應沒有泡沫，樓價卻下跌五成；這清楚推翻「低空置率代表沒有泡沫」。
相反，若大家仔細分析空置率數據，不難發現現時4.3%的空置率，只不過是平均化後的誤導數據。其實某類住宅空置率非常高，而且升幅異於其他類別住宅。
... 大家會發現方差由1%一直上升至4%，顯示平均空置率的數據愈來愈不可信。...戊類住宅空置率升幅已經升至雙位數，2010年時更破歷史紀錄升上 12.9%，是乙類的3倍；丁類住宅空置率比1997年上升足足1倍。若果『高空置率代表有泡沫』，以上數據可能說明炒家就在豪宅，而且泡沫正在膨脹。
相反，若大家仔細分析空置率數據，不難發現現時4.3%的空置率，只不過是平均化後的誤導數據。其實某類住宅空置率非常高，而且升幅異於其他類別住宅。
... 大家會發現方差由1%一直上升至4%，顯示平均空置率的數據愈來愈不可信。...戊類住宅空置率升幅已經升至雙位數，2010年時更破歷史紀錄升上 12.9%，是乙類的3倍；丁類住宅空置率比1997年上升足足1倍。若果『高空置率代表有泡沫』，以上數據可能說明炒家就在豪宅，而且泡沫正在膨脹。
The contention, I suppose, points out that as the vacancy rate is low, it means the demand for occupation is real rather than speculation. However, this hypothesis (that low vacancy rate implies no bubble) is refuted by facts. The previous 97 bubble was burst when the vacancy rate was one of the lowest in the 1990s (3.8% only).
Even if the hypothesis is correct, then if you analyze the vacancy rates of the 5 classes of housing, then it may imply that a big housing bubble is now expanding in the luxury housing sector. It is because the average vacancy rate does not truly reflect the vacancy situations of different classes of housing, the standard deviation of the vacancy rates among the 5 classes has been increasing from 1% to 4% in the past 25 years, implying that the average is more and more unreliable.
In fact, the vacancy rates of Classes D and E have been swiftly increasing in the past 5 years. When that of Classes A and B are steadily at about 2% and 4% respectively, the vacancy rates of Classes D and E have been escalating from about 4.5% to 10%, a 100% increase! Class E's vacancy rate in 2006 and 2010 had broken the records and reached 13.1% and 12.9%!! Thus, in other words, if the hypothesis is correct, then the panel data indeed implies a housing bubble in the luxury housing.
Yet, I pointed out (but was not published in the Chinese newspaper) that the vacancy rates estimated by RVD are not trustworthy. As stated in its Technical Explanations, the vacancy rates are estimated by just a 3% sample, and are based on the responses of property management offices, among others.
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bloomberg.com
Banks buy HK office towers to dodge ever rising rents
Record HK$18.8b in deals over 16 mths; occupancy costs 2nd highest globally
Published May 09, 2013
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| The Agricultural Bank of China building, center, purchased last year for HK$4.9 billion, stands in the central business district of Hong Kong on May 4, 2013. |
Seeking to hedge against rising rents and a shortage of space, banks and insurers are on a record spree of buying office buildings in Hong Kong, where occupancy costs are the second-highest in the world.
Manulife Financial Corp, Canada's biggest insurer, and Hang Seng Bank Ltd this year bought office towers in the city, joining financial firms such as AIA Group Ltd and Agricultural Bank of China Ltd in spending more than HK$18.8 billion (S$3 billion) on commercial properties from January 2012 to last month, according to Cushman & Wakefield. That's the most for a 16-month period on record, the broker's data show.
Companies are looking to secure space in the city where new office supply will fall a third short of demand by the end of the decade, according to Rhodri James, executive director for office services at CBRE Group Inc. The office vacancy rate in Hong Kong fell to 3.3 percent in the first quarter, the lowest in Asia behind Beijing, according to the broker.
"This spate of purchases by financial institutions is unprecedented," said Sigrid Zialcita, Singapore- based managing director for Asia-Pacific research at Cushman & Wakefield. "It allows them to manage their costs, especially given the high rents and the propensity for continual rent increases in this supply-constrained environment."
Demand for offices in Hong Kong has been swelling as the former British colony that was returned to Chinese rule in 1997 cemented its place as a regional hub for global banks and brokerages seeking corporate deals as China became the world's second-biggest economy. Hong Kong was the world's biggest market for initial public offerings in 2010, when companies raised US$58 billion through initial share sales.
Manulife said April 10 it will buy a 512,000 square foot (47,566 square metre) tower in the Kowloon East district from developer Wheelock & Co for HK$4.5 billion, the second-highest price paid for an office building in the city. Upon completion in 2015, it will be used as headquarters for the insurer's 1,200 staff and 5,500 agents.
The largest deal on record is Agricultural Bank of China's purchase last year of 50 Connaught Road in the Central district for HK$4.9 billion. Apollo Global Real Estate and a unit of Hong Kong-based National Electronics Holdings Ltd were the sellers.
Hang Seng Bank, a unit of London-based HSBC Holdings plc and the No 2 Hong Kong-based bank, paid HK$2.9 billion in February for a 30-floor office building in the Mong Kok area, while AIA, the city's second-biggest insurer, in October bought the 300,000 square foot Stanhope House in the Island East district for HK$2.4 billion. As of January, financial services companies accounted for 49 per cent of prime office tenants in the Central district, according to data compiled by CBRE.
More buildings are coming to the market that may be snapped up by financial firms, said Daniel Chow, general manager for sales and distribution for consumer banking at Standard Chartered plc.
Jones Lang LaSalle has been appointed by Wing Hang Bank Ltd to sell a 27-storey office building in Wan Chai, the broker said on April 22. Wan Chai, a district to the east of Central, is known for its nightlife and landmark Central Plaza, once Hong Kong's tallest building.
Last year, Jones Lang was hired by Sino Land to seek buyers for the 330,000 sq ft Centrium office and retail complex in Central that the developer valued at HK$7 billion.
"We're going to see more financial companies considering to buy commercial buildings as their offices or branches," said Mr Chow. "This will be the trend unless there's a sharp decline in rents."
Rents probably won't fall significantly because Hong Kong has one of the world's lowest office vacancy rates. Developers will probably add about 11 million sq ft by 2020, compared with projected new demand of 17 million sq ft over that period, according to CBRE.
Office rents in Central rose to the world's highest in 2008 as mainland Chinese companies turned to Hong Kong banks over the preceding decade, before dropping one place at the end of 2012, according Cushman & Wakefield. London's West End topped the survey with an average annual cost of US$262 a sq ft last year, followed by Hong Kong at US$184 and Rio de Janeiro's US$165.
"We're definitely seeing interest for self-ownership with occupiers," said CBRE's Mr James. "We do anticipate more deals, but opportunities will be limited due to the extremely tight supply situation." - Bloomberg
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租金漲 香港金融業搶買商辦大樓
自由時報2013-5-13
編譯楊芙宜／特譯
香港近來銀行、保險業者掀起辦公大樓搶購潮，過去16個月購買商用不動產總金額高達188億港幣（約24億美元），創空前新高，顯示金融業寧可買樓控制成本，也不願成為租金不斷攀升、空間不足趨勢下的苦主。
根 據房地產諮詢公司高緯環球（Cushman & Wakefield）統計，今年宏利金融公司（Manulife）、恆生銀行加入了如友邦保險集團（AIA）、中國農業銀行等買樓行列，香港金融業於 2012年1月至2013年4月，期間花費188億港幣購買商用不動產，創同期以來最高金額紀錄。
加拿大最大保險業者宏利人壽4月10日宣布，將以45億港幣向開發商會德豐（Wheelock & Co）地產購買九龍東區的21層辦公大樓，總樓面積達51.2萬平方英尺，預期2015年完工，創香港商辦大樓成交價次高紀錄。
中國農業銀行去年向阿波羅全球房地產（Apollo Global）、樂聲電子控股旗下機構購買中環干諾道中路的27層辦公大樓，成交價49億港幣，創香港商辦大樓最高價紀錄。
此外，香港第二大、匯豐旗下的恆生銀行於今年2月間，以29億港幣購買旺角地區一棟30層辦公大樓，香港最大的友邦保險去年10月也以24億港幣買下港島鰂魚涌樂基中心整棟商辦大樓，樓面積約30萬平方英尺。
高緯環球亞太區研究部董事總經理西阿爾西塔（Sigrid Zialcita）表示，香港金融機構掀起買樓潮情況前所未見，尤其在高租金、且租金持續攀漲趨勢等供給受限環境裡，這讓他們能夠管理成本。
辦公室空置率 全球最低
長期以來，香港辦公空間租賃成本高，主因就在於它是世界上辦公室空置率（vacancy rates）最低的城市之一。根據商用不動產經紀公司世邦魏理仕集團（CBRE）的數據，香港今年第1季辦公室空置率下跌至剩3.3%，為亞洲次低，僅高於北京。
世邦魏理仕執行董事簡儒德（Rhodri James）指出，7年內香港新辦公室供給將比需求短少3分之1，企業期望確保空間的使用安全無虞；房地產開發商在2020年前可望增加供應約1100萬平方英尺，但同期需求預估高達1700萬平方英尺。
香港做為全球銀行與經紀商區域中心的地位日益鞏固，各國金融業在中國成為世界第二大經濟體之際，紛紛前往佈局，對樞紐城市香港的辦公空間需求持續膨脹，促使香港於2010年成為世界最大的企業首次公開募股（IPO）市場。
倫敦西區租金 世界最貴
高 盛集團、匯豐控股都選在中環設立地區總部，該區辦公室租金在中國企業大量轉向香港銀行處理業務下，於2008年起，攀升至世界最高水準，直到2012年底 才下降一名、退居第二。根據高偉環球調查，去年倫敦西區辦公室租金為世界最貴，年租金平均每平方英尺262美元，第二貴的香港中環184美元，排第三為巴 西里約熱內盧的165美元。
根據世邦魏理仕彙編數據，中環約有49%頂級辦公室承租人為金融服務業公司。隨著中環辦公空間供給趨緊，金融公司、尤其是後勤營運部門轉向香港島東部與跨越港區尋找替代方案，2008年雷曼兄弟破產後，全球銀行業者削減成本，尋求更便宜租金，更加速此一趨勢。
九龍東地區 拓展最快
橫 跨3個地下鐵車站的九龍東地區，成為近來香港金融公司辦公室拓展最快速的區域，包括新鴻基地產公司、恆基地產過去10年來都完成許多商辦大樓建案，資誠聯 合會計師事務所（PwC）、渣打銀行都把部分營運業務從中環遷至九龍東。啟德機場關閉後，廣達4000萬平方英尺的基地，被視為具有頂級商辦空間的潛力， 港府更誓言把該地區開發為香港第二大金融區。
