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Freeport LNG Export Terminal Approved; What Does it Mean?
by
Michael Levi
May 17, 2013
The Department of Energy (DOE) announced
this afternoon that it had conditionally approved the application of
Freeport LNG Expansion LP and FLNG Liquefaction LLC to export up to 1.4
billion cubic feet of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to countries with
which the United States does not have special free trade agreements.
I’ve written at some length before about the potential consequences of LNG exports in general. But what might the exports from this particular facility mean?First things first: This is just a DOE approval. Freeport will still need to get a permit from FERC. And, more important, it will still need a solid market for its LNG. There are a lot of credible people out there who believe that U.S. LNG exports will be very small – so small, perhaps, that Freeport will never ship any fuel despite having a permit and a set of contracts (PDF) lined up.
What would be the impact, though, if Freeport ultimately did sell LNG at its full approved capacity?
Analyses have typically suggested that prices might rise by $0.10-$0.20/MMBtu for every billion cubic feet a day in export demand. That points to a rise of $0.15-$0.30/MMBtu (against a likely base price of $4-6) if the facility ultimately sells LNG at full capacity.
Analyses also have typically suggested that somewhere between 50 and 80 percent of exported LNG would come from new production, rather than displaced domestic demand. That translates to 0.7-1.1 bcf/d in additional production. That’s equivalent to between 1-2 percent additional U.S. natural gas supply. With shale gas currently contributing about 30 percent of U.S. gas production, it’s about a 4-6 percent increase in U.S. shale gas output.
This increase will be the main source of environmental hazard – the climate impact of Freeport-sized exports will be very small.
What about broader economic impacts? Scaling from a study I published a year ago, my instinct is that this is good for the U.S. economy, but ultimately adds less than a billion dollars a year to GDP, and supports perhaps on the order of 10,000 jobs (many of which would employ people who would have been employed elsewhere otherwise). Most of this job growth would be in gas production and related industries. An export plant of this scale will also likely employ a couple thousand people at the peak of construction.
How about destinations? Freeport has contracted with BP for half of its capacity and with Osaka Gas and Chubu Electric (both Japanese) for the other half. At least half the output, then, would likely be headed to Asia. It’s also quite possible that much of BP’s capacity would be used to ship LNG to Asia too. This would help Asian buyers gain a bit more leverage with their traditional suppliers, and diversify their risks, but as I argued in congressional testimony a few weeks ago, it’s highly unlikely to be revolutionary. That’s particularly true if you’re looking at just one plant.
All told, this approval is good news, with benefits to U.S. relations with other countries even if Freeport never sells a drop of LNG, and the potential for some broader gains if it does. It also reinforces the importance of getting environmental protections right as shale gas production expands.
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標誌性一步:美國批准第二個LNG出口項目
週五美國能源部批准了更大範圍的LNG出口及隨之而來的能源巨頭數以億計的基礎設施投資承諾,美國正在重塑自己在全球能源市場的地位。
這即是美國頁岩革命的成果,同時也預示著美國將在全球能源供應中扮演越來越重要的角色。
美國能源部周五批准了Freeport LNG項目向未與美國簽訂貿易協定的國家(即非FTA國家)出口LNG,這包括亞洲和歐洲一些最大的LNG進口國。 這是近兩年來此類申請首度獲批,也是歷史上第二次。 奧巴馬預計將批准Freeport向全球範圍銷售天然氣。
Freeport已經簽訂協議,將出售天然氣給日本的Osaka Gas和Chubu Electric以及英國的BP。 該項目由Osaka Gas和Freeport的創始人Michael Smith組成的財團擁有。
此外, 據FT報導 ,日本和歐洲的公司都表示將投資數十億美元在另一個LNG出口項目,位於路易斯安那州的價值100億美元的Cameron LNG plant。
華爾街見聞此前報導 ,日本的三井公司、三菱公司、日本郵船公司以及法國的蘇伊士集團已經同意購買來自Cameron的LNG,並將提供建設融資來換取佔比49.8%的股權。 該項目的開發商Sempra Energy的董事長Mark Snell預計日本和法國的財團合計將出資60-70億美元。
迄今共有26個美國LNG項目向能源部申請出口許可,但直到週五之前,只有一個項目Cheniere Energy的Sabine Pass 獲得許可向非FTA國家出口。
能源部批准Freeport項目在未來20年裡出口最多14億立方英尺/天,而Sabine Pass獲准出口22億立方英尺/天。
美國能源部表示將繼續評估剩餘的申請。 而Cameron項目排在最前面,分析師預計該項目將在今年獲得全球出口許可。 然而,能源部也表示將在年底“評估(未來決策)的市場影響”,這顯示出美國政府擔憂同意一系列LNG出口項目可能推高國內氣價。
日本企業對美國的這些天然氣項目尤其有興趣,因為其氣價的定價基礎是美國天然氣基準價格Henry Hub,目前全球許多LNG供應長約以油價指數作為定價基準,美國LNG的氣價要低廉的多。 日本是全球最大的天然氣進口國,隨著福島核電站事故後核電站的關閉,日本對能源的需求更加迫切。
然而另一方面,如華爾街見聞報導 ,美國國內關於天然氣出口的爭論也異常激烈,美國的化學和金屬公司認為應該限制天然氣出口,保持美國企業的競爭力。