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| 一公斤的24K金條顯示中國黃金和白銀交易協會，香港主要的黃金和白銀兌換。 （路透社） |
It may no longer be ‘safe’ to hold on to the ‘safe haven’ precious metal
Gold price suffered a
massive decline of 5.6 per cent, or $87 per ounce, on Friday,
crash-landing at a 22-month low of $1,477 per ounce.
Reports suggest that a 4 million
ounce (124.4 tonnes) sell-order, worth $6 billion (Dh22 billion) at
current prices, by a large investment bank spooked the markets and led
to this decline.
“It appears that the significant
selling pressure last Friday was amplified by a four million ounces
(124.4 tons of gold) selling order, to be executed on Comex opening.
This was clearly too much for a relatively empty market to handle, and
the initial pressure resulted into waves of selling, which in turn
attracted further selling all the way down,” Gerhard Schubert, Head of
Precious Metals at Dubai-based Emirates NBD, wrote in his weekly report.
“The price for gold is now at
par with the price for platinum. This is a very difficult report to
write,” he penned at the beginning of his gold report.
Well, if rumours are to be believed, it’s going to be tougher still for him to write next week’s report.
For, Euro Zone’s troubled
economy Cyprus is all set to add to that chaos by reportedly putting its
€400 million (Dh1.93 billion) worth of gold on the block, in a bid to
shore up its financial health.
In what analysts are terming as a
make-or-break moment for the precious metal, gold has failed all safe
haven tests and, for the first time in about two years, plunged below
the $1,500 mark.
Indeed, it doesn’t seem too good
for the gold bull. Gold last saw these levels in July 2011, after which
it began its very fast and very steep incline to breach the $1,920/oz
mark in September 2011.
Since then, however, the metal
is now down by a quarter (23 per cent) – officially in a bear market. It
was already, technically speaking, in a recession as the price of gold
had shown negative growth for two consecutive quarters (Q4 2012 and Q1
2013).
With this most recent plunge,
gold has wiped off almost two years of gains for its loyal investors,
with those who pledged their hard-earned money in the safe haven
precious metal now in negative equity.
To be fair, just last week we
suggested that with the global economy getting back on track, and in the
absence of a global shock like the Korean war, gold is set to fall back
closer to levels that it saw before the 2008 recession took hold
(read: Gold recovers to $1,581, but here’s why it may crash to $1,000).
“The gold market has, more or
less, officially slid into a bear market. The popular definition of a
bear market is when the commodity in question not only trades but closes
at a level of at least 20 per cent under its all-time highs. The
reverse psychology indicates that only a close above $1,776 would
re-establish the bull market,” wrote Schubert.
That level, for one, looks more
elusive than ever. “It appears that any price rally in the near future
can and will only be described as short covering rallies,” says
Schubert.
“I do expect the market to see
some short covering next week, as the market closed on the multi-year
low. The former support area of $1,526 will become now a formidable
resistance area. However, technical selling can be expected on Comex
opening on Monday, based on models, which have received sell signals
based on last Friday’s close,” he says.
So what happened last week?
While there are many reasons, a couple of factors were the most overbearing on gold price.
One, Cyprus seems set to offload
€400 million (Dh1.93 billion) of its gold reserved in a last-ditch
attempt to save face – and its economy. And if Cyprus does so, there is
no reason why other Euro Zone economies in the same dire straits –
Italy, Portugal, Spain, Hungary, Slovenia… there are plenty in line –
won’t do it.
In addition, if they really
‘have’ to sell their family silver, it will make sense for other
beleaguered European economies to sell it now rather than after the
Cyprus sell-off has pushed gold further down. That is going to see a
scramble among European nations as to who sells earlier, and that can’t
be good news for the price of gold. In fact, it will be very bad for it.
“It [The Cyprus sell-off] is a
make-or-break moment for gold… if the market can’t handle the
reallocation and Cyprus, then there is really a need for a bear market,”
Milko Markov, an investment analyst at SK Hart Management, has been
quoted as saying.
And it isn’t just Cyprus and
other euro Zone nations’ potential dumping of the yellow metal that is
putting negative pressure on gold prices.
On Wednesday, leaked minutes of
the latest US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting showed that
several members of the committee now believe that the benefits of
quantitative easing programme are diminishing, and that costs of the $85
billion per month bond purchases outweigh the benefits.
This means that this flow of
surplus dollars into the market – quite a few of which found their way
into gold investments – will stop, leading to demand drying up for the
yellow metal.
The US Federal Reserve has, so
far, poured more than $3 trillion of easy money into the US since
December 2008, when the first round of quantitative easing program was
unleashed.
Now that the US Fed is making
noises about cutting off that lifeline, gold price will get a nasty
shock when – not if – the QE programme comes to a logical end.
Additionally, a number of
analysts including investment banks Goldman Sachs and UBS have recently
further slashed their average gold price forecast for 2013. Goldman
Sachs has cut its 2013 average gold price forecast for a second time
within just six weeks, this time from $1,610/oz to $1,545/oz. UBS seems
to be a gold price optimist, but it too has slashed its forecast from
$1,900/oz to $1,740/oz.
These downgrades are linked to
the possibility of an early end of the US Federal Reserve-funded QE
programme, which comes with gold-negative factors such as investment
flowing into equities, low inflation, improving economic growth, and a
stronger US dollar.
With loads of investors dumping paper gold (ETFs) in record numbers
during the first three months of 2013, the writing is on the wall for
the future of gold...............................................................
黃金跌入熊市？ 波段跌幅20％
2013-4-14
經濟復甦 轉戰美元、股市
〔編 譯楊芙宜／綜合報導〕國際金價週五跌入熊市，紐約黃金期貨價格盤中一度跌破每英兩一五○○美元，結算價收報一五○一．四美元，創下二○一一年七月以來二十 一個月最低價位，從波段高峰算起跌幅達二十％，符合一般定義的空頭市場，顯示投資人在全球經濟復甦下，已紛紛轉戰美元與股市交易。
國際金價 從二○○一年的每英兩二百多美元上揚至去年底一千七百多美元，多頭走勢長達十二年，各國央行爭相祭出貨幣寬鬆措施之際，今年以來全球出現黃金拋售潮，為黃 金漲勢將在今年終結的預期提供有力支撐。紐約黃金期貨週五盤中一度跌至每英兩一四八○．二美元，結算價則下跌六十三．五美元，跌幅達四．一％，創下去年二 月以來最大單日跌幅。整週總計下跌四．七％。
單日跌4.1％ 盤中破1500美元
美元兌歐元匯率週五一度升值○．五％，史坦普五百指數週四一度觸及歷史新高，塞浦路斯可能出售五．二二億美元的黃金儲備，以彌補金援不足，加上美國最新數據透露經濟低迷跡象，也引發拋售黃金、支撐美元。
全球最大黃金指數型基金道富財富黃金指數基金（SPDR Gold Trust）週五所持有黃金部位達一一八一．四公噸，創近三年最低。今年以來，隨著全球經濟復甦，紐約金價累跌十％。
根 據彭博報導，避險基金經理人、億萬富翁鮑爾森（John Paulson）因押注黃金，近兩年損失超過三億美元個人資產，成為這一波金價回檔受創最深的重災戶之一。鮑爾森避險基金投資約為九十五億美元，其中八十 五％押注黃金市場。今年以來迄至三月，鮑爾森的黃金基金已損失二十八％。
鮑爾森 兩年損失3億美元
紐約期金從二○一一年八月寫下每英兩一八九一．九美元紀錄天價，迄週五結算價一五○一．四美元，回檔跌挫約二十一％，被視為進入熊市。金價在二○一一年八月創新高的主因在於市場對歐債危機不安情緒高漲。
過去十年來，稀貴金屬黃金吸引了大批投資人青睞，首要原因是黃金ETF（指數股票型基金）引進，且背後有實體黃金支持，投資人更容易押注黃金部位，直到二○○九年、二○一○年金融海嘯後國際金價漲幅高達兩位數，吸引更多人進入黃金市場。
然而，在美國股市上漲、通膨溫和，市場認為美國聯準會（Fed）在可見的未來將縮減刺激經濟、提振就業的量化寬鬆措施（QE），黃金投資人開始考慮退場。
美國聯準會十日指出，數位決策官員表態應在今年稍晚開始縮減每月八五○億美元購債規模，年底前停止此量化寬鬆措施。近來美股基準指標道瓊、史坦普指數頻創新高，股市報酬率比黃金來得高，黃金投資魅力不如前幾年金融海嘯與歐債危機高峰期。
